Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is a routine winter day in Wellington, where seasonal averages for June typically sit between 12–13°C, yet current patterns show mild conditions driven by a ridge of high pressure rather than extreme heat. Historical data from Wellington International Airport confirms that daily highs in June rarely exceed 62°F (16°C) or fall below 50°F (10°C), making the crowd-implied 0% probability for any significant temperature spike consistent with decades of comparable winter cases. Recent forecasts for the preceding days, such as June 21, recorded highs near 8–9°C with strong north winds, reinforcing that the current market pricing reflects standard winter behaviour rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor the scheduled weather authority updates from NIWA and the MetService, which issue daily forecasts at 6:38am, alongside any sudden shifts in the ridge of high pressure that currently dominates the region. The market is leaning on the catalyst of stable atmospheric conditions, as no major storm systems or heatwaves are forecast to disrupt the mild ridge before the settlement window closes on 24 June 2026. Recent news from the Wellington Airport operational page notes scattered rain developing late afternoon with temperatures hovering around 14°C, a figure that aligns with the upper bound of typical winter ranges but remains far from the extremes that would alter the 0% YES probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.