Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026, with current market odds implying a near-zero chance of any specific range being hit. Historical data for Wellington in June shows average daily highs dropping from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C), with overcast conditions typical for 42% of the month. A comparable recent market on 11 June 2026 priced a 14°C maximum at 44.5%, reflecting the season’s typical ceiling, while MetService NZ recently confirmed Wellington has already beaten its record June maximum with over 19°C recorded earlier in the month, suggesting the current 0% probability may be overly cautious if the day remains unusually warm.

Traders should monitor MetService NZ updates for any sudden shifts in wind patterns or precipitation, as strong south-south-westerly winds and light rain are forecast for 25 June, which typically suppress temperatures. The BBC Weather report for the day notes a high of 12°C with strong winds and rain, a key catalyst that could validate the current low probability if conditions persist. Additionally, watch for any late-declared climate declarations or campaign-finance disclosures from New Zealand political figures that might influence public attention on weather anomalies, though no such scheduled debates are currently listed. The market leans heavily on the immediate weather forecast from MetService, with the 12°C high being the primary determinant for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.