Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement based on the specific hourly readings rather than the summary high-low figures. The market currently shows 0% probability, suggesting traders expect the actual recorded maximum to fall outside whatever temperature range this option represents.

August temperatures in Beijing typically peak between 29°C and 34°C, with historical data from the past decade showing 21 August highs ranging from 26°C to 35°C depending on monsoon activity and pressure systems. The 2023 reading was 31°C; 2022 recorded 32°C. This variability means any single narrow range carries genuine uncertainty, yet the crowd's complete dismissal of this option indicates either an unusually high or unusually low threshold for this particular bracket.

The critical dependency is Weather Underground's recording methodology at Beijing Capital International Airport, which occasionally diverges from other meteorological stations across the city. Traders should monitor late-August 2026 weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (ECMWF, GFS) as the date approaches, particularly tracking whether high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns dominate the region. Any significant heatwave or unseasonable cooling in early August could shift expectations substantially, though current seasonal norms favour mid-range temperatures that historical precedent suggests fall comfortably within typical August parameters.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.