Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached on 4 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the date has passed and data finalised.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are consistently warm, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 34°C during early June. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the highest temperature to fall outside the uppermost range bracket offered. Early June sits within the pre-monsoon season, when humidity rises sharply but extreme heat events remain less frequent than July or August. Reviewing the Observatory's climate records shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C in early June occur rarely, though not without precedent during particularly intense heat waves or unusual atmospheric conditions.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June 2026, meaning traders must await official Observatory publication of the daily maximum before resolution occurs. No scheduled weather events or atmospheric phenomena with confirmed timing can influence this outcome; resolution depends entirely on actual meteorological conditions on the specified date. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's historical temperature patterns and any long-range seasonal forecasts issued closer to June 2026, though such forecasts carry substantial uncertainty at multi-year horizons. The market's current pricing reflects baseline expectations for typical early-June conditions in Hong Kong.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.