Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul is entering its peak summer heat phase, with June daily highs typically climbing from 77°F to 81°F and rarely exceeding 87°F, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature range suggests traders are betting against an extreme outlier event on 24 June 2026. Historical data shows the highest temperature recorded in Seoul during this period was 91°F on 19 June 2026, while the nation recently shattered all-time records with a 41.0°C reading in Hongcheon, indicating that while heat is intensifying, the specific threshold in question remains statistically improbable for this date [1][3][4].

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system’s influence, which drives hot, humid conditions capable of pushing temperatures toward 35°C, alongside any scheduled declarations from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding forecasted heatwaves for late June. Recent reports confirm that 59 out of 97 weather stations across South Korea recorded their highest daily average temperatures for June between Saturday and Monday, suggesting a sustained heat trend that could be the catalyst for unexpected spikes, though the market currently leans on the absence of a declared extreme event for 24 June specifically [5][7]. The primary catalyst remains the official Wunderground reading for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, which will determine the final resolution regardless of broader national trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.