Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 25 June 2026 is expected to fall within the 26–28°C range, consistent with early summer conditions before the monsoon intensifies. Historical data shows June highs in Seoul typically reach 26–28°C, with average highs around 27°C and occasional peaks near 30°C, but rarely exceeding 32°C before late July[1][2]. The current 0% YES crowd-implied probability likely reflects a misalignment with these norms, as temperatures in this range are standard for mid-June and not anomalous[2][8].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any forecasts for heatwaves or sudden humidity spikes that could push temperatures above 30°C[5]. While June is generally mild, late-month humidity and rising temperatures—especially in urban centres like Seoul—can create real-feel conditions exceeding 35°C, even if actual highs stay under 30°C[6]. No scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures are expected to influence weather outcomes, but local media coverage of extreme heat events could shift market sentiment if temperatures breach historical averages[3]. The market appears to be leaning on the absence of confirmed heatwave alerts as its primary catalyst, despite seasonal patterns suggesting moderate warmth is typical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.