Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is in the middle of its warm season in late June, so the key question is whether the day reaches the upper end of the normal range rather than whether it gets near freezing or remains cool. Climate data for the airport show June daily highs typically rising from about 77°F to 83°F, with extremes rarely below 69°F or above 92°F, while the hot season begins around 17 June and runs through mid-September.[1][4]

That background makes a very low implied probability of a high-temperature band look detached from seasonal norms. AccuWeather’s June outlook for the airport points to highs in the mid-70s to low-90s Fahrenheit for the month, and its 22 June forecast shows a high of about 79°F with thunderstorms later in the day, suggesting a middling outcome rather than a record-cold reading.[6][8] The broader pattern is that mid-summer heat is normal at PVG, but cloud and rain can cap the day’s maximum.

For traders, the main catalyst is the day-of forecast and whether convection arrives during the warmest part of the afternoon, since that will decide whether the airport reaches the higher end of the band. The National Weather Service time-series for ZSPD shows temperatures climbing through the morning and early afternoon on 22 June, which is the period most likely to determine the final maximum.[2] In market terms, the near-term read is leaning on the latest airport forecast and any shift towards heavier rain or earlier thunderstorms, rather than on longer-run seasonal averages.[6][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.