Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7?

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Market context

This market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 7 June 2026, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station and date.

Taipei's June temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year. Historical records from Songshan Airport show that daily highs in early June typically range between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional peaks reaching 33–34°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or have not yet engaged with this weather market. June sits in Taiwan's pre-monsoon period, before the peak summer heat of July and August, which moderates extreme temperature swings. Comparable June days at Songshan Airport rarely exceed 35°C, making very high temperature ranges less probable than moderate ones.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 June 2026, which corresponds to midday Taipei time—the period when daily maximum temperatures are typically recorded. Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns as the date approaches; any unusual atmospheric systems or heat dome formations affecting East Asia in early June could shift temperature expectations. The specific resolution source, Weather Underground's Songshan Airport station data, is publicly accessible and regularly updated, removing ambiguity about which measurement will determine the outcome. No scheduled events or announcements directly influence local temperature, making this a pure weather-dependent market.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.