Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s weather on 4 August is the real-world event behind the market, and the settlement point is the day’s *highest* reading at Haneda Airport rather than a citywide average. The crowd-implied 0% YES looks hard to reconcile with the temperature backdrop: Tokyo’s August climate is typically hot and humid, with long-run guidance pointing to daytime highs around 31–31.5°C and August averages in the mid-20s to low-30s Celsius range.[1][14][19]

For comparable framing, Tokyo has already been printing summer highs well into the 30s Celsius in 2026, with Japan Meteorological Agency daily data showing Tokyo’s station high reaching 36.5°C on 1 August and 35.3°C on 2 August.[10] That makes a sub-threshold outcome less plausible unless cloud cover, rain, or an onshore breeze suppresses the afternoon peak; even broad August forecasts still cluster around 30–33°C for the city.[1][8][15]

The main catalyst traders should watch is the day’s local temperature profile: if the early-morning reading starts warm and skies stay broken, the highest value usually comes in the early to mid-afternoon before coastal moderation or showers arrive. Forecast services currently lean hot rather than cool, with AccuWeather putting Tokyo’s August 2026 daily highs in an 82–90°F band and timeanddate showing a very warm morning reading around 74°F ahead of the main heating cycle.[1][2] There is no obvious scheduled political-style catalyst here; the market is being driven mainly by the weather forecast and whether it verifies at Haneda rather than Tokyo’s inland stations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.