Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s August heat is usually governed by a narrow cluster of outcomes around the low- to mid-30s Celsius, and the market is about the maximum recorded at Haneda rather than any headline city average. JMA daily data for early August already shows Tokyo-area highs in the mid-to-high 30s at inland stations, while Haneda has been in the mid-30s, which helps explain why a 0% yes price is vulnerable if the day turns into a standard late-summer heat spike rather than an unusually cool one.[1][4][5] August is also Tokyo’s hottest month on average, with typical highs around 30-31°C and repeated excursions above 30°C common in the city.[4][5]

The comparison case for traders is less “will it be hot?” than “how hot can the airport station get before sea breezes or cloud cover cap the top end”. Reuters reported in July that Japan was already seeing “brutally hot” conditions, underscoring that the broader summer pattern has leaned warm rather than benign.[15] The catalyst to watch is the day-of weather evolution in Tokyo Bay, especially whether afternoon sunshine persists long enough to push Haneda into the highest temperature band on the Wunderground daily observations table; if convection, sea breeze, or rain arrives earlier, the ceiling can come in materially lower. The market’s lean on Wunderground’s station-level daily observations means traders should focus on the intraday peak, not the day-high summary figure, because that table is the settlement source.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.