Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer heat is already intensifying, with July 2026 forecasts for Haneda Airport showing daily highs between 83°F and 96°F (29°C to 35°C), and an average high of 87°F (31°C). This aligns with recent record-breaking trends: in July 2025, Japan hit its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C, and Tokyo saw 10 consecutive days above 35°C, marking the third year of record-high July averages.

Historically, mid-to-late July in Tokyo routinely reaches 36°C to 40°C, especially with humidity exceeding 95%, making the current 0% YES probability for any temperature below 29°C appear inconsistent with both seasonal norms and recent extremes. The market’s tight clustering around 29–31°C on Polymarket—where 31°C holds 38% implied probability—suggests traders are leaning on official JMA observations rather than short-range ensemble forecasts, which have previously underestimated peak heat.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Haneda, as resolution hinges on the official station reading. Recent climate disclosures from the Japanese government confirm rising summer temperatures, and no scheduled weather interventions or declarations are expected to alter the forecast. The primary catalyst remains the natural progression of the hot season, which runs from late June to mid-September, with peak intensity typically in July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.