Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington, New Zealand, is experiencing its midwinter chill, with the highest temperature on 13 July 2026 at Wellington International Airport almost certain to fall within the 13°C range. The market currently assigns a 97% probability to this outcome, leaving the 0% YES probability for any alternative range effectively reflecting the near-impossibility of a significant heat anomaly during this season [1].

Historical MetService records confirm that July highs in Wellington consistently cluster between 11–14°C, with a long-term mean near 12°C, making a 13°C peak the statistically dominant expectation [1]. Weather Spark data for Wellington International Airport notes that daily high temperatures in July average around 54°F (approximately 12.2°C), rarely exceeding 58°F (14.4°C), which aligns precisely with the market’s heavy weighting on the 13°C bracket [8]. This consistency in winter thermal behaviour means the current 0% probability for non-13°C outcomes is grounded in decades of stable climatic data rather than speculative guesswork.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the day’s recorded maximum temperature at NZWN [1]. While no political or campaign-finance catalysts influence winter weather, any sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could theoretically alter the peak, though such deviations remain statistically negligible given the historical mean. The market is leaning entirely on the established climatic baseline, with no scheduled debates or declarations relevant to this weather event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.