US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The U.S. and Iran have already signed an interim written understanding, but the market still needs a **final, qualifying diplomatic instrument** by 31 August for a Yes. That means the June framework matters chiefly as a starting point: it created a 60-day negotiating runway, not a completed nuclear settlement, and several core issues still have to be locked in, including enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and verification.[6][14][15]

For context, the current 0% crowd price looks anchored to the long record of U.S.-Iran talks producing *process* rather than finality. In February, both sides said they had reached only “guiding principles” and that a lot of detail remained unresolved, while later rounds still ended with “progress” and no final deal.[3][7][11][13] That pattern makes a late breakout possible, but it also means traders should discount headline optimism until the text is formally adopted and the parties have cleared the remaining implementation terms.[1][9]

The main catalyst is whether negotiators convert the existing MoU into a signed or adopted final instrument before the deadline, and the market will likely react to any joint statement, technical-session schedule, or sanctions/IAEA announcement tied to that effort.[5][6][10] Reuters has already reported that the sides were close enough in June for signing to be discussed “in the coming days”, but also that the text was not yet finalised; if that gap reopens, the probability should stay near zero, whereas a fresh announcement from mediators or a U.S./Iran statement on the remaining nuclear and sanctions clauses would be the decisive move.[9][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.