Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol was sitting in a typical late-summer band on 16 August, with forecast highs around 22–23°C and lows in the mid-teens rather than any extreme heat signal. That keeps the market aligned with the summer norm: Amsterdam’s August highs usually sit in the low 20s, so the sharpest action is generally in the 20–25°C range rather than the top brackets.

That historical framing matters because the current 0% YES implies the market is effectively discounting a credible chance of a notably warm reading in the settlement window. Comparable August days in Amsterdam often finish near the seasonal average, and the published forecast for 16 August pointed to cloudier, less humid conditions with a high near 22°C, which supports the lower temperature buckets rather than an outlier move.

The key catalyst is the actual daily observation at Schiphol, not the headline day-high summary, so traders should watch the Weather Underground daily observations table for any midday warm-up before 12:00Z. The latest forecast materials also suggested only modest warmth and some cloud cover, so the market is leaning on routine weather delivery rather than a sudden heat spike, with the main dependency being whether the airport briefly reaches the upper-teens or low-20s Celsius before the cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 16? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.