Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 17 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside whatever range this market's upper bound specifies, though the exact threshold is not stated in available documentation.

August temperatures at Schiphol historically cluster between 20–25°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 28°C even during warm summers. The station's 30-year average for mid-August sits around 22°C. Extreme heat events pushing above 30°C occur roughly once per decade in the Netherlands; the summer of 2022 saw several such days across the country, whilst 2023 and 2024 remained closer to seasonal norms. This historical distribution provides the baseline against which the current zero probability should be evaluated—it reflects either an implausibly high temperature threshold in the market's range, or trader conviction that August 2026 will track cooler than recent precedent.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly from KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) and Météo-France, which issue extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead. Any significant Atlantic blocking pattern or heat dome positioning over continental Europe in early August would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, creating a hard deadline for final temperature observations at Schiphol.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.