Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam’s airport temperature on 31 July will be set by the day’s *peak* reading at Schiphol, so the key issue is not the morning start but whether the afternoon warms enough to break into the higher Celsius bands. Seasonal comparisons point to a fairly compact July distribution: Amsterdam’s average July high is about 22°C to 23°C, with typical daily highs around 22°C and lows near 13°C to 14°C, while the monthly record high is much higher at roughly 32°C, showing that heat spikes are possible but uncommon.[8][10][12]

That historical range matters because a 0% crowd price on the top outcome usually reflects a market expectation that the realised high will stay well below the hottest buckets, rather than an assumption that the weather will be cold. For late July, the more common pattern is a modestly warm, sometimes breezy day, with forecast services around this date pointing to highs in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius rather than exceptional heat.[2][3] Compared with a true hot spell, that leaves the market leaning on an ordinary summer reading unless conditions shift sharply.

The main catalyst is the actual Schiphol observation through the afternoon, since the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded there on the day, not a city-centre forecast.[1] Traders should watch for any late-day forecast revisions from major weather services and for whether cloud cover, drizzle, or a stronger south-westerly breeze limits the climb; one forecast source for Amsterdam on Friday indicates mostly cloudy, warm conditions around 26°C with only a small drizzle chance, which would support a mid-range settlement rather than a heat-extreme outcome.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.