Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 14 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently reflects zero probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete trader participation or expectation of extreme heat exceeding available brackets.

Chengdu's August climate presents consistent patterns for comparison. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August temperatures in the city typically peak between 32–36°C, with occasional excursions toward 37–38°C during particularly intense heatwaves. The 2013 heatwave pushed readings to 40°C, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. August represents the tail end of the East Asian summer monsoon season, when moisture from the Bay of Bengal moderates temperatures somewhat compared to June and July peaks. The zero probability assignment suggests traders may be anchoring to unusually cool forecasts or awaiting clearer seasonal predictions.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. The Pacific typhoon season, active through August, could introduce moisture systems that either suppress or intensify heat depending on track and timing. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shuangliu Airport—the designated resolution source—updates continuously, making real-time monitoring essential during the settlement window. Any significant deviation from Chengdu's typical August range would warrant reassessment of current probability distributions.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.