Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July climate typically delivers afternoon highs around 33°C, with average daily maximums near 31°C and humidity levels that often feel oppressive. The 0% YES probability on this market implies the crowd expects the highest temperature on 20 July 2026 to fall outside the implied range, likely because the range is set too low for a standard July peak or the market is betting on unusually cool conditions despite seasonal norms. Historical data shows sustained extreme heat is rare in Chengdu compared to eastern China, though afternoon spikes to 33°C are common in mid-summer [1][2].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily history for ZUUU (Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport) as the settlement date approaches, since the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded temperature at that station. No political debates, campaign disclosures, or conventions influence this weather outcome; the sole catalyst is the actual meteorological reading on 20 July 2026. Given the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on that day, any temperature recorded before noon will determine resolution, and the 0% crowd stance suggests confidence that the temperature will not hit the market’s upper threshold. Weather forecasts for late July in Chengdu usually predict warm, humid days with moderate rainfall probability, but no specific announcement can alter the recorded temperature once the day passes [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.