Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station during that calendar day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature thresholds or awaiting clarity on which specific range the market offers. Resolution depends entirely on historical weather data from Wunderground, making this a straightforward factual settlement rather than one subject to interpretation or dispute.

Guangzhou's July temperatures follow a consistent pattern shaped by subtropical monsoon climate. Historical records from the airport station show July highs typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks near 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2013 heatwave pushed temperatures to 37.6°C, whilst more recent Julys have clustered around 33–34°C. These precedents establish the likely outcome range; traders should examine whether the market's temperature brackets align with this historical distribution or if they've been set at outlier thresholds that explain the zero probability.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released by China Meteorological Administration in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–15 day outlooks for Guangdong Province. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing in the preceding months could shift expected temperatures upward or downward. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 25 July, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once morning temperatures are recorded but before the day's peak heat arrives.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.