Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

Hong Kong's highest daily temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the single maximum temperature reading for that date, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect either extreme heat or uncertainty about data availability at settlement time.

June sits within Hong Kong's early summer period, when daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C according to the Observatory's historical climate records. The city experiences monsoon influence during this month, with occasional tropical systems bringing cooler conditions or, conversely, heat-trapping humidity that can push temperatures toward the upper 30s. The absolute maximum ever recorded in June across Hong Kong's records stands at 36.1°C, set in 2015, providing a ceiling reference for extreme scenarios. Most June days cluster between 30°C and 32°C, making temperature bands in that range historically most probable.

Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June 2026, as these systems can substantially alter temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 June, but the Observatory typically publishes Daily Extract data within days of the observation date. Delays in data release could prevent timely resolution. The current zero probability may reflect either confidence that temperatures will fall outside certain ranges or concern that the Observatory's publication schedule could extend beyond the settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.