Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses whether Houston will reach a specific high-temperature threshold on 10 July 2026 at William P. Hobby Airport, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to the “YES” outcome. This implies traders expect the day’s peak temperature to fall below the defined range, despite Houston’s reputation for extreme summer heat.

Historical records show 10 July 2022 hit 105°F at the same station, matching the record high for any July 26 date in 1954 [1][4]. However, typical July highs in Houston average 92–95°F, rarely exceeding 100°F [3]. The current week’s forecast shows highs near 98°F with heat indexes up to 107, suggesting conditions are hot but not record-breaking [1]. Given that the 0% probability reflects a belief the temperature will stay below the threshold, the market appears to lean on the statistical likelihood of average July conditions rather than outlier heat events.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for KHOU on 10 July 2026, as the market resolves solely on that station’s reported high [2]. No political or campaign-finance catalysts influence this weather event, but forecast revisions from the National Weather Service or sudden shifts in regional humidity could alter the outcome. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, real-time data from the official source will be the only decisive factor [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Houston on July 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.