Highest temperature in Houston on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak heat recorded at Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport on 15 July 2026, a date that historically aligns with the city’s most intense summer conditions. With the crowd assigning zero probability to any outcome, the implied view is that no temperature will be recorded, which contradicts the physical reality of a functioning weather station during midsummer.

Houston routinely experiences July highs between 95°F and 102°F, with 15 July 2025 reaching 99°F at Hobby Airport, according to Wunderground’s historical archive. Over the past decade, the median peak for this date sits at 98°F, and extreme outliers have breached 103°F during heatwaves linked to stagnant high-pressure systems. The 0% probability suggests a technical error in market setup or a misunderstanding of the resolution mechanism, not a credible meteorological forecast.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily update scheduled for 16 July 2026, which will publish the official peak temperature for 15 July. No political debates, campaign disclosures, or conventions influence this outcome, as the market is purely weather-driven. The sole catalyst is the automated data feed from the National Weather Service via Wunderground; any delay or gap in reporting could temporarily suspend resolution, but the temperature itself will be recorded regardless of market activity.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Houston on July 15? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.