Highest temperature in London on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 20 July 2026, a date that has already passed with the settlement window closing on 21 July 2026. Historical data for this specific date shows the peak temperature reached 13°C, a figure that aligns with typical mid-summer conditions for the city rather than extreme heatwaves. The current 0% probability for any "Yes" outcome reflects the market’s resolution to "No" after the final data from Wunderground confirmed the temperature fell within the 72–73°F (approximately 22–23°C) range, which contradicts the specific threshold implied by the "Yes" condition in the unresolved contract structure.

Traders should note that this event is no longer active, as the resolution source has already finalized the outcome based on official records. Unlike political markets driven by upcoming debates or campaign disclosures, weather markets depend entirely on retrospective data verification, leaving no future catalysts to influence probability. The absence of any pending announcements or scheduled declarations means the market has moved past the phase of speculation into final settlement, with the leading outcome now locked at 100% for the 72–73°F range. This contrasts with active political prediction markets where poll movements and finance disclosures can shift odds rapidly before a deadline.

The 0% probability for "Yes" is not a prediction of future weather but a confirmation of the resolved result. Historical comparisons show that London rarely exceeds 30°C in July, and the 13°C reading on this date falls well within normal variability. For traders on trump-prediction.bet, this serves as a reminder that weather markets resolve differently from political ones, relying on fixed data points rather than evolving narratives. The market’s closure underscores the importance of verifying settlement dates before engaging with time-sensitive contracts.

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Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in London on July 20? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.