Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami International Airport will record its highest temperature on 13 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently implies zero probability of any temperature outcome, suggesting either a technical issue or extreme uncertainty about which specific range will resolve.

August temperatures in Miami are remarkably consistent. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that daily highs in mid-August typically fall between 89–92°F, with readings above 93°F occurring in roughly 15–20% of years. The 0% crowd probability appears disconnected from this baseline climatology. Comparable August 13th observations from prior years at Miami International Airport cluster tightly around 90–91°F, providing a narrow band where most outcomes should concentrate. The absence of any crowd conviction suggests traders may be awaiting clarification on the specific temperature ranges available for resolution.

The settlement window closes on 13 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC, meaning resolution occurs mid-afternoon local time—typically near the daily temperature peak. Traders should monitor Weather Underground's data feeds in the weeks preceding the event to confirm the Daily Observations table remains accessible and properly updated. Tropical weather patterns, including potential afternoon thunderstorms common to South Florida in August, could suppress peak temperatures, though such systems rarely prevent readings in the 88–92°F range. The market's current state suggests waiting for either range options to be published or for initial crowd activity to establish baseline pricing before meaningful trading emerges.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Miami on August 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.