Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 13 August 2026, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders are betting on a specific meteorological outcome nearly two years hence.

New York City's August temperatures have historically ranged between 75°F and 90°F, with extreme highs occasionally exceeding 95°F during heat waves. The National Weather Service records show that LaGuardia has experienced temperatures above 90°F on roughly 40% of August days over the past three decades, whilst readings above 95°F occur in approximately 15% of August occurrences. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing in an exceptionally cool August day or treating long-range weather prediction as inherently unreliable—a rational position given the difficulty of forecasting specific temperatures two years in advance.

Meaningful catalysts for this market remain distant. Seasonal climate patterns and potential shifts in Atlantic hurricane activity could influence August 2026 conditions, though such factors remain speculative at this remove. The primary dependency is the accuracy of Weather Underground's LaGuardia station data collection on the resolution date itself. Traders should monitor whether the market's current probability reflects genuine confidence in cooler-than-typical conditions or simply the difficulty of committing capital to weather forecasts beyond conventional meteorological horizons.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on August 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.