Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine which range this market settles into. The resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, establishing a precise methodological baseline for settlement. New York City's August temperatures typically peak in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s.

Historical August data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur in roughly one-third of years, whilst readings above 95°F are considerably rarer. The 1936 heat wave remains the reference point for extreme August conditions in the region, though more recent comparable events—such as August 2021, which saw a high of 89°F at LaGuardia—provide more typical modern benchmarks. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold as unlikely, though the exact range boundaries would clarify whether this reflects scepticism about extreme heat or merely typical seasonal patterns.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasting updates from the National Weather Service and longer-range climate models as August 2026 approaches. La Niña or El Niño conditions could influence Atlantic weather patterns affecting the northeastern United States. Historical volatility in August temperatures—ranging from 75°F to 96°F at LaGuardia over recent decades—means that seemingly low probabilities for particular ranges warrant scrutiny against the full distribution of possible outcomes rather than reliance on average conditions alone.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 15? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.