Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a severe heat wave that has already shattered multiple temperature records at LaGuardia Airport, with the station hitting 104°F on 3 July 2026 and breaking a 60-year-old high [3]. The market’s 0% probability for any specific range suggests the crowd expects the 12 July peak to fall outside the listed options, likely because the current extreme conditions make a return to average July highs of 73–91°F improbable [2]. Historical data shows LaGuardia’s record high for early July was 98°F in 1988, but the 2026 wave has already pushed readings to 104°F, indicating the settlement will likely land in a higher bracket than pre-heat-wave models anticipated [3][8].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, as the settlement relies on the official daily high recorded at the station [8]. The heat wave’s persistence into the weekend, with midnight temperatures reaching 94°F on 4 July, signals that atmospheric conditions remain conducive to record-breaking highs through 12 July [1][4]. Watch for any official heat advisories or extended forecast updates from AccuWeather or FOX Weather, which could confirm whether the current 100°F+ trend continues or if a cooling front arrives before the settlement window closes [2][4]. The market is leaning on the continuation of this East Coast heat wave, which has simultaneously broken records across a 500-mile corridor [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.