Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

# Market Context: Highest Temperature in NYC on July 19, 2026

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 July 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground historical data. New York City's summer temperatures typically peak in late July, with average highs around 27–28°C (80–82°F), though readings regularly exceed 30°C (86°F) during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will resolve or have not yet engaged with this specific date forecast.

Historical July records at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station has recorded temperatures above 32°C (90°F) in roughly half of July years since 1950, with extreme heat events pushing readings above 35°C (95°F) occurring every few years. The 19th falls in the climatological peak of summer heat in the Northeast, making mid-range outcomes (27–32°C) statistically most probable. Comparable dates in recent years—such as mid-July 2022 during a regional heat dome—saw temperatures exceed 33°C (91°F), establishing that extreme outcomes remain plausible.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts as July 2026 approaches. The Atlantic hurricane season, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and jet stream positioning in early summer will shape whether high-pressure systems dominate the Northeast during that week. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days ahead, will provide the most actionable signals for narrowing probability ranges closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 19? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.