Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

A heatwave is not forecast for New York City on 20 July 2026, with the crowd assigning zero probability to any temperature exceeding the 82–83°F range that currently dominates the market. Historical records for LaGuardia Airport show that mid-July typically sees highs between 78°F and 86°F, making a sub-70°F day or a spike above 90°F statistically rare for this date [2][3]. The 0% YES probability reflects consensus that conditions will remain within the norm, aligning with the 100% implied chance for the 82–83°F bracket on Polymarket [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s seven-day forecast for the New York region, which updates daily and will clarify whether any anomalous cold front or extreme heat surge is developing before the settlement window closes on 20 July at 12:00 UTC [3]. While no political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, sudden shifts in regional pressure systems—often tracked via Wunderground’s daily history for KLGA—could alter the temperature range if a forecast error occurs [1]. The market is leaning on the absence of extreme weather catalysts, with no scheduled atmospheric events expected to disrupt the typical July thermal profile.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 20? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.