Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

A severe heatwave has gripped the New York City Metro area, with LaGuardia Airport recording its highest daily temperature of 104°F earlier in July 2026, alongside a historic midnight reading of 94°F that shattered previous records from 2013[1][3]. This extreme thermal activity frames the current market probability of 0% for the 84–85°F range, as historical data and recent forecasts indicate daily highs will likely range between 81°F and 99°F throughout the month, making the lower bracket statistically improbable[5][8]. The crowd’s dismissal of the 84–85°F outcome aligns with the observed trend of temperatures consistently exceeding 90°F during this intense period[1][9].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather model updates from the National Weather Service and real-time data feeds from Wunderground, which will confirm the precise peak temperature for 5 July 2026 at LaGuardia[7]. While no specific political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence this weather event, the market is leaning on the immediate meteorological catalyst of the ongoing heatwave, which has already driven temperatures to record levels[8]. The settlement window closing on 5 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC means the final resolution will depend entirely on the highest recorded temperature for that specific day, with current indicators pointing firmly toward the upper end of the forecast range[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.