Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 June 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and settled against historical weather data from Weather Underground.

New York City's June weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical June 11th temperatures at LaGuardia have ranged from lows around 60°F to highs exceeding 85°F, with an average high near 78°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with this market. Comparable June dates at LaGuardia show that readings between 75–85°F are most common, though heat waves can push temperatures into the low 90s. The settlement window closes at midday on 11 June 2026, meaning only morning and early afternoon readings will count toward resolution.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts as June 2026 approaches. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 8–14 days in advance, with increasing accuracy as the date nears. Atlantic hurricane activity patterns and jet stream positioning in early June will influence whether high-pressure systems deliver above-average heat or whether cooler maritime air moderates temperatures. Real-time forecast updates from Weather Underground itself will provide the most direct signal for positioning, particularly in the 72 hours before settlement.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.