Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, capturing the peak temperature across all hours of the day at New York City's primary aviation weather station.

New York City's June temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 88°F, with extreme highs occasionally reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for mid-June sits around 79°F. LaGuardia's location near water moderates temperature swings compared to inland areas; the airport's maritime influence typically suppresses both highs and lows relative to Manhattan's urban heat island effect. Historical June records show that temperatures above 90°F occur roughly once every three to five years during this month, whilst readings below 70°F are uncommon but possible during cooler systems.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts beginning in late May 2026, particularly tracking whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic tropical moisture patterns develop over the Northeast. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued two to three weeks ahead, provide the most reliable guidance for June temperature ranges. Seasonal climate patterns—including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and early summer jet stream positioning—influence whether the month trends warmer or cooler than normal, though week-to-week variability remains substantial at this lead time.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.