Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 6 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical records for the station.

Early June temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15°C and 25°C, though extremes are possible. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that June maximums have occasionally exceeded 30°C during heat waves, whilst cooler spells can produce highs below 18°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect the market to remain unresolved due to data access issues. Comparable European airport stations show June variability of roughly 15°C between seasonal lows and heat-driven peaks, providing a baseline for assessing which temperature ranges carry genuine uncertainty versus near-certainty.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting from mid-May onwards, particularly outputs from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atmospheric patterns in early June 2026 will determine whether high-pressure systems deliver above-average warmth or Atlantic systems bring cooler, wetter conditions. The specific resolution mechanism—relying on Weather Underground's historical database for Le Bourget—introduces a secondary dependency on data availability and accuracy at that source. Any scheduled maintenance or data gaps at the station could affect settlement clarity.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Paris on June 6? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.