Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July climate is defined by cool marine influence, with daily highs typically hovering around 70°F and rarely exceeding 79°F[1]. Historical data for 12 July specifically shows extreme variability: in 2021, the city tied a record low maximum of 57°F, while other years see temperatures climb into the mid-70s[9][3]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome (presumably a high-temperature threshold) aligns with this pattern, as July 12 has never recorded an extreme heat event comparable to the 106°F record set in September 2017[2]. Traders should view this as a baseline expectation of moderate warmth rather than a heatwave scenario.

Key catalysts for this market include the National Weather Service’s daily 5 a.m. and 11 a.m. Pacific updates for KSFO, which provide the official temperature readings used for Wunderground’s resolution[7]. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026, the final determination hinges on the single highest reading recorded between midnight and noon UTC (7 p.m. to 7 a.m. PDT)[10]. No scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures affect this weather event, but traders should monitor real-time KSFO station data via Wunderground, as sudden marine layer breaks could temporarily elevate temperatures[8]. The market leans on the absence of a documented heatwave catalyst for this specific date in historical records.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.