Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the day’s **maximum temperature at Incheon International Airport** on 1 August, with settlement tied to the highest reading recorded at that station before the window closes. Early market pricing at **0% YES** reflects how narrow the relevant observation window is, but it also leaves room for a sharp midday jump if the current heatwave intensifies over the airport area.

Recent weather reports point to an unusually hot start to August across South Korea. Reuters reported that the country posted its hottest temperature on record on 31 July, 41.4°C in Yangsan, while Korea Meteorological Administration data showed Seoul and Incheon still warm overnight, with Incheon at 26.8°C around 9 a.m. and Seoul at 27.4°C[5][1]. That matters because Incheon’s August climate is typically warm rather than extreme, with long-run averages around the high 20s Celsius, so a settlement in the upper end of the usual range is more plausible than an outlier unless the current heatwave persists through the afternoon[18][19].

For traders, the main catalyst is the **KMA short-range forecast** for the Seoul-Incheon corridor, plus any updated heatwave advisories or local aviation-area observations during the daytime peak[4][9]. Broad news coverage suggests the heatwave is not easing quickly, with forecasts and reports on 31 July pointing to another very hot day on 1 August and daytime highs in the low to mid-30s across the region[15][7]. The market is therefore leaning on whether Incheon tracks the national heat pattern closely enough to push its airport station reading materially above seasonal norms, rather than on any single headline event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.