Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is experiencing a mid-July heatwave that has already pushed daytime highs toward 35°C, with the Incheon International Airport station tracking the city’s peak thermal output for this prediction market. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature range suggests traders expect the day to remain within standard seasonal bounds, despite recent record-breaking trends in overnight warmth.

Historical data frames this expectation: July in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 29°C and 32°C (85°F–91°F), rarely exceeding 33°C [5]. However, July 2025 shattered century-old records with 22 consecutive “tropical nights” above 25°C and a peak early-July temperature of 37.7°C in Seoul itself [1][8]. The all-time national record stands at 41.0°C in Hongcheon, but Incheon—coastal and slightly cooler—has not approached that extreme [2]. The 0% probability likely reflects confidence that today will not match last year’s anomaly, even as climate shifts push summer averages upward [7].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time feed for the Incheon station, as the market resolves strictly on that data point [1]. A sudden shift in the North Pacific high-pressure system could spike temperatures beyond 35°C, echoing August’s typical peak of 26.1°C mean warmth [9]. No scheduled political debates or campaign disclosures influence this weather event; the sole catalyst is atmospheric pressure and humidity levels over the next hour before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.