Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with the monsoon season typically concluded by this date. Historical records from Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station for Seoul's weather data, show July averages around 26–28°C, though daily highs frequently exceed 30°C during the summer peak. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanics or expect the market to remain unresolved due to technical issues, rather than reflecting genuine scepticism about measurable temperatures on that date.

Comparable July days at Incheon show considerable variance. The past five years' July 25th records range from approximately 24°C to 32°C, reflecting the influence of monsoon timing and atmospheric pressure systems. Traders should note that Wunderground's historical data occasionally experiences delays or corrections, particularly for Asian weather stations, which could affect settlement timing. The specific reliance on Incheon International Airport Station data—rather than Seoul city centre measurements—matters, as airport locations sometimes record marginally different temperatures due to local geography and surface conditions.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on July 25th, 2026, creating a tight resolution window. Traders monitoring this market should track weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models in the weeks preceding the date, as these will provide the most reliable indicators of likely temperature ranges. Any disruption to Wunderground's data collection or archival systems could delay or complicate settlement, though such issues are rare for major international airports.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.