Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world driver is the weather over the Seoul/Incheon area on 31 July, with the market settling on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station by the end of the settlement window. Early pricing at 0% YES is consistent with a market that is still essentially waiting on the day’s actual observed maximum rather than a long-horizon forecast, and the live outcome will depend on whether the afternoon heat peaks high enough to land in the relevant Celsius band.

July in Seoul is normally hot and humid, with average highs around the mid-20s Celsius, but the tail risk is driven by summer heat events that can push well above the monthly norm. Recent seasonal guidance points to daily highs around 30–31°C for late July, while broader July climate summaries still show that Seoul can reach the low-to-mid 30s during warmer spells. That makes the market sensitive to whether today behaves like a routine monsoon-season day or one of the hotter outbreaks seen in recent summers.[1][11][18][19]

The main catalyst to watch is the day’s official and station-level temperature trace from the Wunderground Incheon page, because that is the settlement source rather than generic Seoul forecasts. Traders will also be watching short-term updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and local coverage of any heatwave or shower shifts, since cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, and afternoon convection can cap the maximum even when earlier forecasts look warm.[3][6][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.