Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement uses historical weather data from Weather Underground, with measurement taken across all daylight and evening hours on that single day. Seoul's early summer climate typically produces warm but not extreme conditions in early June, though variability between years remains substantial.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. Over the past two decades, daily highs in early June have ranged from approximately 20°C on cooler days to 28–30°C during warmer spells, with occasional outliers reaching into the low 30s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently view certain temperature brackets as implausible rather than unlikely, which may reflect either extreme confidence in a narrow range or uncertainty about which specific bracket the market offers. Comparable early-June periods provide limited predictive power given Seoul's susceptibility to both monsoon influences and high-pressure systems that can shift conditions substantially within weeks.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns through May 2026 and early June forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which typically issues extended outlooks two to three weeks ahead. Any significant heat wave warnings or unusual atmospheric pressure systems developing in late May could shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at midday on 10 June, meaning final forecasts issued the morning of that date will carry the most relevance for late-stage trading movements.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.