Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 8 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Wunderground, which archives daily temperature records by location. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any temperature range, suggesting either incomplete price discovery or uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately contain the day's peak.

June temperatures in Seoul typically range between 20°C and 28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that early June sits at the transition between late spring and summer conditions, with high variability year to year. The 0% crowd probability may reflect difficulty in forecasting six months ahead rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded; seasonal weather models become unreliable beyond two weeks, leaving traders dependent on climatological averages and long-range ensemble forecasts from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Traders should monitor spring 2026 temperature trends across East Asia, as persistent warm patterns in May could signal an earlier or more intense heat onset by early June. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks that may offer guidance on seasonal positioning. Any significant climate oscillations—such as shifts in the East Asian summer monsoon onset or Pacific pressure systems—would alter the probability distribution across temperature brackets in the weeks immediately preceding settlement.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.