Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak summer heatwave period, with July consistently delivering the city’s highest daily temperatures. The market’s 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects the 11 July 2026 maximum at Pudong Airport to fall outside the implied range, likely due to anticipated rain or cloud cover suppressing peak heat. Historical data confirms July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs near 33°C (87°F) at Pudong, often exceeding 35°C (95°F) under clear skies [1][2].

Comparable cases show that when thunderstorms or heavy rain occur on mid-July days, maximum temperatures frequently drop 3–5°C below the seasonal average. Recent forecasts for 11 July indicate gusty winds and light rain, which aligns with the crowd’s bearish stance on extreme heat [5][8]. The key catalyst traders should monitor is the overnight development of convective showers; if the rain clears before midday, temperatures could spike toward 34–35°C, invalidating the current probability. Watch Wunderground’s hourly updates for Pudong on 11 July, as a sudden shift to clear skies would be the primary reversal signal [market description].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.