Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's peak reading.

August temperatures in Tokyo typically range between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-August readings at Haneda have exceeded 34°C in roughly 60% of years over the past two decades, whilst temperatures above 37°C occur in approximately 15% of August occurrences. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is anomalous given these seasonal patterns and suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader engagement rather than reflecting genuine forecasting consensus.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Pacific high-pressure systems and potential typhoon activity in the region during mid-August could significantly influence outcomes; the Japan Meteorological Agency's official forecast issued around 4–5 August will be the primary catalyst for market movement. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Haneda Airport Station will serve as the definitive resolution source, making historical consistency of that specific station's measurements relevant to settlement interpretation.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.