Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s outcome will be set by the highest temperature logged at Haneda Airport on 2 August 2026, and in early August the city is normally in its warmest stretch. Long-run Tokyo climate references put August average highs around 31°C to 34.6°C, with rare extremes above 37°C in the historical record, while recent summer data show Japan has been capable of much stronger heat events in late summer[1][2][4].

That history matters because the market is not asking whether Tokyo gets *hot* but whether it reaches the upper part of the day’s range by the settlement cut-off. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the price is effectively treating a high-end heat outcome as very unlikely despite August’s seasonal baseline and the fact that Tokyo has recently experienced record or near-record heat in broader national conditions[4][8][20].

For traders, the main catalyst is the day’s actual temperature trace from Wunderground rather than a political-style announcement cycle, so the important watchpoints are morning heating, cloud cover, sea breeze, and whether afternoon conditions break into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook for Tokyo shows daily highs mostly in the 82°F to 90°F range, which is consistent with a warm day but not a guaranteed spike, so the market will lean most heavily on whether forecast models and live observations converge towards a stronger afternoon peak[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.