Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, which serves as the primary resolution source. The market currently shows 0% probability, suggesting traders expect the actual recorded high to fall outside all available temperature ranges offered, or that no reliable reading will be available by the settlement deadline.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with historical August averages clustering around 33–34°C. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo record 35.1°C on 16 August, whilst 2022 peaked at 35.5°C in mid-August. These precedents establish the baseline range within which 21 August highs have historically fallen. The 0% crowd probability suggests either that the available resolution brackets exclude the most likely outcome, or that traders are pricing in uncertainty around data availability from Weather Underground's specific Daily Observations feed rather than doubting the temperature itself will be recorded.

Traders monitoring this market should track Weather Underground's operational status through late August 2026, as any service disruption at Haneda Station would prevent settlement. The distinction between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section is material; discrepancies between these sources have historically occurred, making the specified primary source critical to resolution. Real-time temperature forecasts from Japan Meteorological Agency and local weather services will provide guidance on whether August 21 is likely to be an anomalously hot or cool day within the typical range.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.