Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s late-July heat is usually intense, but the market is about the *day’s peak* at Haneda rather than the citywide average, so the relevant question is whether conditions stay near normal summer levels or spike into an outlier. Tokyo’s July climate average is around 30°C, while recent daily data for Tokyo and Haneda show highs often in the low- to mid-30s, with 31 July 2025 at Haneda reaching 31.1°C in official JMA data and Tokyo itself sitting in the low 30s on the same day.[11][8] The current 0% YES crowd view is consistent with a market that needs a specific threshold or range to be hit, but it also suggests traders are not pricing in an exceptional heat event at the airport itself.

Historical comparables point to how quickly Japan can overshoot norms. The country has just logged some of its highest temperatures on record, including 41.2°C in Hyogo and 41.8°C in Isesaki this week, which underlines the broader heat regime even though Tokyo airport readings are typically lower than inland hotspots.[9][14] Tokyo’s own historical record is much lower than those national extremes, with all-time highs around 37°C at the city station and July averages still far below the 40°C-plus level seen elsewhere in Japan.[6][11]

For traders, the main catalyst is the weather pattern over the next several hours: cloud cover, sea breezes, and any late-morning or early-afternoon convective heating will matter more than broader seasonal context. The most useful live references are the Wunderground Haneda history page that the market resolves on and the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Tokyo daily observations, since a short-lived midday peak can determine the outcome even if the rest of the day cools later.[5][8] Recent news coverage from Reuters, CBS News and others has focused on Japan’s nationwide heat records, which frames the risk of an elevated reading if the current pattern persists.[14][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.