Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 4 June 2026, with the settlement determined by historical data from Wunderground. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any temperature range, suggesting either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about conditions on that specific winter date in the Southern Hemisphere.

June falls within Wellington's winter season, when mean daily highs typically range between 11–13°C. Historical records from the airport station show that winter maxima rarely exceed 18°C, with temperatures below 10°C occurring frequently during this period. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges indicates traders have not yet engaged substantively with this market, though the settlement mechanism is straightforward: Wunderground's historical weather data for Wellington Intl Airport on that date will determine the outcome once the window closes on 4 June 2026 at noon UTC.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly any unusual atmospheric patterns that might drive temperatures above typical winter norms. The New Zealand MetService provides extended outlooks several weeks in advance, though their reliability diminishes beyond ten days. Unusual warm spells during Wellington's winter are possible but infrequent; the market's current lack of engagement may reflect the straightforward nature of the resolution criteria and the distant settlement date, leaving little incentive for early positioning.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.