Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's minimum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the absolute daily minimum in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, measured across the full calendar day. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to forecast a specific temperature range nearly two years in advance, where atmospheric conditions remain entirely unknown.

August in Hong Kong typically sees daily minimum temperatures between 25°C and 27°C, with the month ranking among the warmest of the year. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily minima below 24°C are exceptionally rare in mid-August, occurring only during unusual weather systems or anomalous cooling events. The 30-year climate normal for Hong Kong's August minimum sits around 26°C, providing a baseline against which any eventual reading will be assessed. Traders should note that tropical cyclone activity, which peaks during late summer, could theoretically depress temperatures, though direct impact on daily minima remains limited unless a system passes directly over the territory.

The primary dependency is data publication from the Hong Kong Observatory's official climate records, which typically become available within days of the observation date. No scheduled weather events or forecasting milestones exist at this distance. Traders will effectively be wagering on whether August 2026 produces meteorologically anomalous conditions—a proposition with minimal historical precedent for mid-summer Hong Kong. The market's current odds reflect genuine uncertainty rather than any identifiable catalyst.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.