In this guide
Key takeaway: Prediction markets enable you to trade on how real-world events will unfold. Purchase YES or NO contracts that are worth $1 upon correct prediction. This approach proves far more accessible than conventional equity trading, and you can begin with just $1.
Greetings to the world of prediction markets. Whenever you have thought "I reckon that's going to occur" — your mind already operates within a prediction market framework. The distinction lies in the ability to commit genuine capital to your belief and earn returns when your forecast proves accurate. This introductory guide to prediction markets will have you executing trades within five minutes flat.
How prediction markets work (the 60-second version)
Prediction markets establish tradeable propositions centred on forthcoming occurrences. For instance:
- "Will the Fed cut interest rates in June?" — YES contracts at $0.65, NO contracts at $0.35
- "Will Bitcoin close above $90K on December 31?" — YES contracts at $0.55, NO contracts at $0.45
- "Will France win the 2026 World Cup?" — YES contracts at $0.13, NO contracts at $0.87
Each contract settles at precisely $1 when the event occurs, or $0 when it does not. The prevailing market price embodies collective probability assessment. Should you believe the consensus misprices an outcome, you can trade — and profit when events validate your judgment.
Step 1: Choose a platform
Two dominant platforms dominate the prediction market landscape:
- Polymarket — highest trading volume, blockchain-based infrastructure (USDC via Polygon), accessible globally (excluding United States)
- Kalshi — operates under CFTC oversight, denominated in USD, restricted to US participants
PolyGram connects you directly to Polymarket's order flow through a streamlined experience — straightforward email authentication, no blockchain wallet required, and optimised for mobile usage. We suggest commencing your journey here.
Step 2: Fund your account
Account funding through PolyGram remains uncomplicated. Deposits arrive via debit card or blockchain transfer. Begin modestly — £7-35 suffices for initial exploration. Additional capital can be contributed whenever desired.
Step 3: Find a market you understand
Novice traders frequently stumble by wagering on unfamiliar domains. Concentrate on sectors where you possess genuine knowledge:
- Engaged with political developments? Explore electoral prediction markets
- Enthusiast of athletic competition? Wager on sporting fixtures
- Cryptocurrency observer? Speculate on digital asset valuations
- Technology watcher? Forecast innovation launches and regulatory outcomes
Step 4: Place your first trade
Navigate PolyGram's markets page and identify a proposition where you dispute the prevailing valuation. Should the consensus suggest 40% likelihood whilst you assess 60%, acquire YES contracts. Your potential gain if correct: $1.00 - $0.40 = $0.60 per contract (representing 150% appreciation).
Step 5: Manage your position
Upon acquiring contracts, three pathways present themselves:
- Retain through settlement: Maintain your position until the triggering event concludes. Correct predictions yield automatic $1 settlement per contract
- Exit profitably early: Should favourable price movement occur before conclusion, liquidate your holdings for gains without awaiting final resolution
- Reduce exposure on reversals: When fresh developments alter your assessment, exit the position at a loss rather than pursuing recovery
Risk management for beginners
- Allocate no more than 5% of your account balance to any individual market
- Prioritise established markets (substantial activity, competitive pricing) — sidestep obscure propositions with minimal participant engagement
- Document your outcomes systematically to identify patterns in your decision-making
- Acknowledge this reality: even markets priced at 90% certainty fail roughly once per ten occurrences
Prepared to execute your inaugural prediction market transaction? Begin trading on PolyGram →