Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House on 17 July 2025 with bipartisan backing but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where a competing discussion draft, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, has emerged [4][5]. With the settlement deadline set for 31 December 2026, the current 38% implied probability reflects the uncertainty of Senate approval rather than House opposition, as the bill already cleared its first major hurdle [4].

Historically, crypto market-structure bills in the US face significant Senate friction despite House passage, mirroring the prolonged journey of earlier proposals like the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, which also passed the House but languished in the Senate for years [5]. The 38% figure aligns with this pattern of partial legislative success, where House approval is common but Senate consensus on jurisdictional splits between the SEC and CFTC remains elusive [1][5].

Traders should monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for a vote on H.R.3633 or any amendments to the competing RFIA draft, as well as upcoming campaign-finance disclosures from key senators who may signal their stance on CFTC exclusive jurisdiction [5]. The primary catalyst is a formal committee hearing or leadership declaration from Senate Banking Chair; without such movement by late autumn, the probability of passage by year-end will likely decline further [5]. Recent news confirms the bill currently sits with the committee, with no confirmed timeline for advancement [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.