Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Trump Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Trump Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 100% ex-RUBY | 0% Infinite |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% Infinite | 100% ex-RUBY |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% Infinite | 100% ex-RUBY |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) | 0% ex-RUBY | 100% Infinite |
Market context
Infinite and ex-RUBY are scheduled to meet in a CCT Europe Series #4 playoff match, and the market’s 0% YES read implies traders are currently treating an Infinite win as highly unlikely. The fixture itself is set for an online European CS2 event, with match listings placing the start at 11:00 AM and the market’s description anchoring it to the Round of 16.[1][3]
The clearest form guide in the available data is modest but positive for Infinite: Dust2.us reports that Infinite beat ex-RUBY in their only meeting over the past 30 days, and that Infinite have won three of their last five matches.[2] That combination matters in a short-series setting because a best-of-three can hinge on map vetoes and one hot start, so recent head-to-head and sequence of results often outweigh broader season averages. Comparable CCT-tier playoff markets tend to move quickly on any confirmed line-up change or early map ban advantage, but without a stronger pre-match signal the market appears to be leaning on ex-RUBY’s perceived stability rather than a headline form gap.[2][3]
For traders, the main catalysts are the official start time, whether both rosters are fully intact, and any schedule slip that could push settlement into the 50-50 clause if the match is not completed within seven days of the intended date. The most relevant live context source here is the match page itself, which is where timing and status updates should first appear.[1][5]
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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